Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Federal Rate Cuts Possibility

Had a good read today about the current situation. Indeed quite worrying to see the rate cuts persist when the current situation is about trade wars and other factors. 'If trade wars are what’s causing the uncertainty, the only solution is to resolve that uncertainty, not paper over it with cheap money. Neither the price of credit nor the access to credit is restraining the economy, so how does a rate cut help?'

But it looks like the rate cuts will persist due to Trump's pressure, which might further contribute to the increasing amount of debt in the market. This might not look well in the long term.

Another bet will be on gold which has already been trading above $1,400 since the announcement of the rate cuts. Other safe haven assets include Japanese yen and Swiss franc which might be good to hold due to their close to 0% rate policy. By their extension, that also means Japanese and Swiss equities. Lower rates also mean the interest rate spread is lower, which means these assets are more attractive.

This is my opinion now, would to love to hear other comments. :)


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