Saturday, March 30, 2019

Inverted Yield Curve and Thoughts

Recently, CNBC posted here that there was an inverted yield curve, which signifies that debts in the long term have lower yields as juxtaposed to their short term counterparts. The article is really very detailed, but what is key here is that it is considered an indicator of an upcoming recession, where it was largely accurate in the last 50 years and only a false alarm during this period.

If we think about it from another view, higher short-term rates mean it is harder for businesses and people to borrow money and might lead to an economy contraction, which results in a recession.

Well, I am looking at this from a different perspective of the article, where I am camping to buy stocks at depressed levels, which this opportunity might bring about.

I talked about the Shiller Ratio in my previous post, where Singapore shares still look pretty undervalued compared to their US counterparts, but still at a score of 15+.

Source: Barclays Shiller Ratio (Singapore)


However, if we use the 52-week low method, we do find out that not many stocks are near 52-week lows. The bottom 3 stocks which are nearest now is about 4+%. Not a lot of things to buy in my opinion...



With growth concerns looming for 2019, I doubt there is ample bandwidth for stocks to rise significantly. So instead I will be waiting for opportunities to buy when prices drop (hopefully). But of course, my guess is as good as yours.

What's your strategy? Pray tell!


No comments:

Post a Comment

OCBC Dividend too

 Another choice to make here: OCBC is offering a cash or stock option. Similarly to Mapletree NAC, I think cash is the way to go for this ti...